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OCTOBER 20,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET.

POLICE WORK – From the New York Post:  A cop was shot in the head and killed while chasing a gunman after a shootout in East Harlem Tuesday night, police sources said.  The housing cop, with five years on the force, responded to a call for gunfire between two rival groups at 420 East 102nd street at around 9 p.m., according to law enforcement sources.  Once the officers arrived on scene, the warring groups split up and scattered, with one suspect robbing a bike by gunpoint.  The bike-riding gunman led cops on a chase to a footbridge at 120th Street near the FDR.  Once the suspect made it over to the waterside there was an exchange of gunfire and the cop was struck in the forehead, sources said.  We will now be told that the killer was culturally upset by being chased by police.  Police lives matter.

NUTBAG – From the Washington Free Beacon:   Former President Jimmy Carter said recently that he provided maps of Islamic State positions in Syria to the Russian embassy in Washington, a move apparently at odds with the Obama administration’s official policy of not cooperating with Russia in the Syrian war.  Carter said on Sunday in Georgia that he knows Russian President Vladimir Putin “fairly well” because they “have a common interest in fly fishing.” When he met with Putin in April along with other global leaders to discuss the crises in Syria and Ukraine, the Russian president gave him an email address so the two could discuss his “fly fishing experiences, particularly in Russia,” Carter said.   It is hard to believe that this man was an American president.  Of course, it's hard to believe that the current occupant of the White House is an American president.

A NEW KIND OF DEMOCRACY – From Fox:  There’s a big election controversy at a California middle school after the principal discovered that not enough black or Latino students were elected to office.  Principal Lena Van Haren’s decision to withhold the results of the student government elections angered parents and students at Everett Middle School in San Francisco.  “It’s not okay for a school that is really, really diverse to have the student representatives majority white,” she told the San Francisco Chronicle. “The easy thing would have been to announce the results and move on. I intentionally did not choose the easy way because this is so important.”  What a heroine.  There were no complaints – none whatever – that the election was dishonest.  The kids elected whom they wanted to elect.  But democracy to "progressives" means that the "right" people must be elected.  We are in trouble.

RYAN IN, WITH CONDITIONS – From the Washington Times:   Rep. Paul Ryan said Tuesday he’s ready to replace Speaker John A. Boehner if House Republicans of all stripes unite behind his vision, capping an intense wait to hear from the man who many tapped as the sole hope to save a bitterly divided caucus.  Mr. Ryan, Wisconsin Republican and 2012 vice presidential candidate, gave members until Friday to mull whether they’re in his corner or not, an ultimatum designed to get complete buy-in from every wing of the party and avoid the type of disarray that doomed Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s short-lived bid for the post.  “If I can truly be a unifying figure, than I will gladly serve,” Mr. Ryan said after a closed-door meeting with fellow House Republicans.  If Ryan can unify the party, he not only will become speaker, he'll become a future presidential candidate.

October 20, 2015       Permalink

WHY JIM WEBB IS IMPORTANT – AT 10:47 A.M. ET:  This expands on our report that Jim Webb, who participated in last week's Democratic debate, may run for president as an independent.  From Fox:

Former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb will announce Tuesday that he is dropping out of the Democratic presidential race, Fox News has learned.

Webb is said to be disillusioned with the Democratic Party -- as well as the Republican Party -- and how the political parties are being pulled to allegedly extreme positions by the huge amounts of loosely regulated money fueling the campaigns.

Webb has a press conference scheduled for 1 p.m. ET.

While Webb is thought to be weighing a possible independent bid, he is not expected to launch an independent campaign for president Tuesday. Rather, he's expected to take some time after his announcement to talk with people from across the political spectrum before making a decision.

COMMENT:  This is important because Jim Webb, while not very well known, has a stellar military record and a history in both political parties.  He was, before becoming a nominal Democrat, Ronald Reagan's secretary of the Navy. 

A Webb campaign, drawing on the best of both parties, could conceivably get as much as five percent of the vote, maybe even more.  That can swing a presidential election by drawing more votes from one party than the other.  Recall that Ralph Nader's independent candidacy in 2000 probably cost Al Gore the election.  Recall that Ross Perot's independent candidacy in 1992 surely cost George H.W. Bush the election. 

So Webb is important.  As a former U.S. senator (from Virginia) he's experienced in the national landscape and knows how to campaign.

October 20,  2015     Permalink

RUSSIA IN THE MIDEAST – AT 9:56 A.M. ET:  You kind of wonder whether Field Marshal Obama is simply naive about the new Russian expansion into the Mideast, or understands it fully and has no problem with it.  After all, Obama was brought up influenced by Marxists and Muslims, even attending a Muslim school in Indonesia.  My feeling is that it's the latter.  Note please which international forces have grown in power since Obama took office – Communism and militant Islam.  Coincidence?  Only in the mainstream media.  From Bloomberg: 

As Russia’s air war in Syria nears its fourth week, officials now admit that Moscow’s aim is far broader than the publicly announced fight against terrorist groups.

The Kremlin’s real goal is to help Syrian President Bashar al-Assad retake as much as possible of the territory his forces have lost to opponents, including U.S.-backed rebels, Russian officials told Bloomberg News. Moscow’s deployment of several dozen planes, as well as ships in the Black and Caspian Seas, could last a year or more, one official said.

President Vladimir Putin is willing to run the risk of falling into the kind of quagmire that helped sink the Soviet Union a generation ago for the chance to roll back U.S. influence and demonstrate he can dictate terms to Washington. If the strategy is successful, Russia’s largest military drive in decades outside the former Soviet Union would force the U.S. and its allies to choose between Assad, whom they oppose for his human-rights abuses, and the brutal extremists of Islamic State.
“They’re going to have to recognize that Islamic State is the real threat that has been countered only by the Syrian regular army commanded by President Bashar al-Assad,” said Iliyas Umakhanov, deputy speaker of Russia’s upper house Federation Council, who oversees international relations at the assembly.

A top Russian military official said on Friday that the Kremlin sees no moderate opposition in Syria, leaving only terrorists and the pro-Assad forces Moscow is backing.

“In the West, they talk about ‘moderate opposition,’ but we so far haven’t seen any in Syria,” General Andrey Kartapolov, commander of the Russian operation in Syria, told the Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper. “Any person who takes up arms and fights the legal authorities, how moderate can he be?”

COMMENT:  Obama may well leave office having handed the role of major power in the Mideast to the Russians.  And he's thinking about a legacy?  He ought to think about that.  But, of course, his thoughts would be very different from ours.

October 20, 2015       Permalink 

GOP RACE, LATEST – AT 9:35 A.M. ET:  It is a strange political year.  Republicans with heavy records of political accomplishment are being swept aside in favor of political amateurs.  It is interesting, but dangerous.  Amateurs, like Ross Perot in 1992, look good at the moment, but they often self-destruct down the line because of their lack of experience.  From CNN:

Washington (CNN) Donald Trump and Ben Carson now stand alone at the top of the Republican field, as Carly Fiorina's brief foray into the top tier of candidates seeking the GOP nomination for president appears to have ended, a new CNN/ORC poll finds.

Overall, Trump's 27% leads the field, followed by Carson at 22%, both head and shoulders above their nearest competition. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio are tied for third place with 8% support each, followed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul each at 5%. Fiorina, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz each have 4% support, while Ohio Gov. John Kasich is at 3%. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum stands at 2% and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham holds 1%.

The new poll comes amid a flurry of polling being released about a week before the GOP candidates will again meet on the debate stage. The polling criteria set by the organizers of that debate, set to take place October 28, appear likely to result in 10 candidates taking the main stage. Aside from Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who ended his campaign shortly after last month's debate, it's likely to be a rematch of those who debated in Simi Valley.

Fiorina's decline comes across the demographic and political spectrum, with her support now topping out at 8% among those with college degrees. Last month, she stood at 22% among the same group. Fiorina has dropped 11 points among women and 12 points among men, fallen 18 points among independents, 17 points among those age 50 or older, and 15 points among conservatives.

COMMENT:  I hate to see results like that.  Jeb Bush was an outstanding governor of Florida.  He deserves better despite an unimaginative campaign.  Marco Rubio is a gifted political leader, and probably the only candidate who can best Hillary Clinton in a debate.  He's superb.  He deserves better.

Rick Perry and Scott Walker also deserved better.  Outstanding records both.

The drop in Carly's standing is baffling.  She's a dazzler, although some people tell me she comes off as cold, a kind of mechanical candidate.  I don't think she is, but she clearly has to do well in next week's GOP debate and connect better on the campaign trail. 

I sense a growing unease within the Republican Party that the frontrunners are unelectable in a general election.  I share that concern.  But I also recall that the same was said of Ronald Reagan when he ran for the GOP nomination in 1980.  Of course, Reagan had been a two-term governor of our largest state.  He knew how to handle a major campaign.

October 20,  2015     Permalink

OCTOBER 19,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET:

CANADIAN RETURNS – The mainstream (leftist) media has joyfully announced the election of Justin Trudeau as Canada's next prime minister.  This was expected, but the delight of the left was still evident.  Trudeau is the son of the late Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, who had no great love for America, but who went to great parties with his wife, Margaret.  We now lose, but profusely thank, Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who has run Canada as a stalwart ally of the United States and freedom.  I wish Harper had been blessed with a better president to work with.  How long will it be before Canadians express buyer's remorse?  Maybe a week?

WEBB BOOMLET? – From the Washington Free Beacon: Jim Webb, the author and former senator from Virginia who also served as secretary of the Navy under President Ronald Reagan, is weighing an independent bid for the presidency, according to a press release sent by his campaign on Monday.  Webb, who is currently running for the Democratic presidential nomination and whose views on foreign policy, affirmative action, and other issues are widely considered out of step with his current party, will give a press conference on Tuesday, Oct. 20.  “Senator Jim Webb will hold a press conference on Tuesday, October 20, 2015, to discuss his candidacy, the campaign and his views of the political parties in the current election cycle,” said the release, which was headlined “Jim Webb To Consider Independent Run.”  Could be fascinating.  Webb could run as a true independent, a centrist, at a time when the parties are being increasingly pulled to the left (Dems) or the right (GOP).  The question is whether Webb can gain any traction at all.  If he can, which party does he hurt most?

WHOOPS – From mediaequalizer.com:  Embarrassed Washington Post editors were left scrambling earlier today after a story was accidentally published that declared Joe Biden’s presidential candidacy.  With “XXX” showing in certain areas where details were yet to be added, it’s clear the piece was meant to remain in draft mode. But somebody with a fat finger hit the wrong button. Before the story could be removed, the Republican National Committee grabbed and sent the copy to those on its “War Room” mailing list.  Once the error was discovered, it was replaced with an editor’s note reading “This file was inadvertently published.”  Notice the public excitement when the thing actually came out.  Maybe it's a message to Joe.

October 19, 2015       Permalink

CANADA VOTES – AT 9:49 A.M. ET:  Why do we always ignore Canada, one of our closest allies?  Probably because Canada never causes any trouble and is no threat to us.  It's unfair, because Canada has so often been with us in the tough times.

Canada votes in a national election today. Unfortunately, the probable result this time will not be entirely pleasing.  We probably will lose Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, one of the greatest leaders in the West, a friend to America – despite Obama's contemptuous attitude toward Canada – and a man who never hesitated to identify freedom's enemies by name.  From AP:

TORONTO (AP) -- The son of a man who brought glamor and excitement to Canadian politics in the late 1960s is favored to become Canada's next prime minister.

Justin Trudeau, the son of late Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, is leading in the polls ahead of Monday's election that could spell the end of a decade of Conservative rule under Stephen Harper.

Trudeau, tall and trim at 43, channels the star power - if not quite the political heft - of his father, who swept to power in 1968 on a wave of support dubbed "Trudeaumania."

Pierre Trudeau, who was prime minister until 1984 with a short interruption, remains one of the few Canadian politicians known in America, his charisma often drawing comparisons to John F. Kennedy. A bachelor when he became prime minister, he dated actresses Barbra Streisand and Kim Cattrall.

At age 51 while in office, he married 22-year-old Margaret Sinclair, who earned notoriety as first lady for partying with the Rolling Stones and at New York's Studio 54. They had three sons, including Justin, the eldest. The couple divorced when Justin was six and the boys were raised by their father, who died in 2000.

If he wins, Justin Trudeau, who has three young children with former model and television host Sophie Gregoire, would become the second youngest prime minister in Canada's history, despite a thin resume. A former teacher who sported long hair until recently, Trudeau has been an opposition member of Parliament since 2008.

COMMENT:  Trudeau is on the left, his father was seen as somewhat anti-American.  You'll recall that, under Pierre Trudeau, Canada became a haven for American draft dodgers. 

But the son seems to be somewhat more sane.  Obama will undoubtedly call him, leftist to leftist, and maybe even invite him here.  After all, how many friends does Obama have remaining?

October 19, 2015       Permalink

NO BOUNCE FOR HILLARY – AT 8:19 A.M. ET:  The first major post-Democratic-debate poll is just in, and the results must be disappointing for Hillary Clinton.  From CNN:

Washington (CNN) With the first Democratic debate in the books, a new CNN/ORC poll finds most who watched think Hillary Clinton had the best performance of the night, but her strong showing hasn't boosted her standing in the race for the party's nomination.

Clinton stands at 45% in the race for the Democratic nomination, with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders behind her at 29%. Vice President Joe Biden, who is considering a run for presidency and did not participate in last week's debate, follows at 18%.

Behind the top three, former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb had 1% support, while former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee, Harvard professor Larry Lessig and former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley all held less than 1% support.

Compared with pre-debate polling, Sanders' support is up five points since mid-September, but no other candidate showed significant change.

As Biden mulls whether or not to get in the race, the poll suggests Democrats are becoming less enamored of a run from the vice president. In August, 53% of registered Democrats said they wanted Biden to run, that's down to 47% in the new poll. Should Biden decide to sit out the race for the Democratic nomination, Clinton's lead over Sanders climbs to 23 points: 56% would back Clinton, 33% Sanders.

Overall, 31% of registered Democrats say they watched all or most of the CNN/Facebook debate, held October 13 in Las Vegas.

COMMENT:  So, what do we see?  Despite her debate performance, and the fact that she is one of the most recognizable political figures in the world, Hillary Clinton still polls at below 50% in her own party.  Even if Biden opts out, she would be at only 56%, hardly a knockout figure.

Hillary has problems.  It's clear she faces a serious enthusiasm gap, and trustworthiness gap.  She appears before the Benghazi committee this week.  And there is that little matter of an FBI investigation.

She is not a sure bet at all.

October 19, 2015       Permalink

STILL WAITING ON JOE – AT 8:14 A.M. ET:  By the time Biden decides, no one will remember who he is.   From CBS News: 

A close confidant and longtime advisor of Biden's who spoke to him recently says that Biden, as vice president, feels he has earned the right make a decision about his political future on his own timetable.

"He (Biden) really does not care about John or anyone else," the source said, referring to John Podesta, Hillary Clinton's campaign chairman. "He does not like bullies and will not be bullied. He has never really been part of the Democratic establishment and could care less about it." Podesta told multiple media outlets last week that it was time Biden made a decision about whether he's running for the presidency.

Former top adviser to President Obama, David Axelrod, seemed to agree with Podesta. After pointing out the filing deadlines that come up in November, he said he thought "particularly within the Democratic community there's a growing impatience with this period of reflection," he said in an interview with John Dickerson on "Face the Nation" Sunday."

COMMENT:  Axelrod is correct.  Although people sympathize with Biden over the recent death of his son, they also understand that this is about the presidency of 320 million people. 

Biden's "decision-making" process is beginning to raise questions about whether he's decisive enough to be president, whether he has what Jack Kennedy called the "vigor."  I mean, if he can't decide on this, what can he decide on?

As we pointed out, there is no great "wanting" of Joe Biden.  His strength is that he's not Hillary Clinton.  Despite her well-received debate performance, Clinton still has a perilous road ahead.  I don't recall any other presidential candidate being under FBI investigation while campaigning.  Many Democrats want an alternative to the scandal-prone Clinton.  You can't get out of jail to attend your own inauguration.

October 19, 2015       Permalink 

ABOUT TIME SOMEONE SAID IT – AT 8:03 A.M. ET:  Hillary Clinton will testilie before the House Benghazi committee this week, and Chairman Trey Gowdy is laying down the law to adolescents in his own party about behavior.  From Fox: 

Hillary Clinton’s upcoming testimony before Congress’ special Benghazi committee is being hyped as the biggest moment in the panel’s controversial existence. But the committee’s Republican leaders said Sunday they are equally, if not more, focused on new evidence and continued pursuit of the facts behind the fatal 2012 attacks.

“We have found new facts that have absolutely nothing to do with her,” South Carolina GOP Rep. Trey Gowdy, chairman of the House Select Committee on Benghazi, told CBS' “Face the Nation.”

“I get that people don't want to talk about that. But the seven [Republican] members of my committee are much more focused on the four dead Americans than we are anyone's presidential aspirations.”

Clinton, the 2016 Democratic presidential front-runner, is scheduled to testify Thursday about her role as secretary of state during the Sept. 11, 2012, attacks on a U.S. outpost in Benghazi, Libya, in which Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans were killed.

And...

In addition, Gowdy on Sunday told fellow Republicans uninformed about exactly what the committee is doing to "shut up."

COMMENT:  About time.  A couple of slow learners on the Republican side, apparently full of themselves, have suggested that the committee is all about politics, essentially destroying the committee's credibility.  One of the slow learners is Kevin McCarthy, who was on track to be the next speaker of the House, but whose rhetorical blunder has now wrecked that aspiration, and possibly his career.

The committee can restore its luster if it comes up with some striking new information about Benghazi.  Trey Gowdy is a shrewd operator.  I think he'll make some major news.

October 19,  2015     Permalink